Mambilla Ruling Protects Nigeria’s Finances, Opens New Economic Possibilities — TSF

Mambilla Ruling Protects Nigeria’s Finances, Opens New Economic Possibilities — TSF

The Tinubu Stakeholders Forum (TSF) has described Nigeria’s victory in the International Chamber of Commerce (ICC) arbitration concerning the Mambilla Hydropower Project as a significant development for the country’s public finances, power sector and broader economic prospects.

The ICC Arbitral Tribunal rejected claims brought by Sunrise Power and Transmission Company Limited against the Federal Government of Nigeria, including the company’s $2.35 billion claim arising from the long-running dispute over the project. The tribunal also rejected a separate $400 million claim relating to a proposed settlement, bringing the aggregate claims addressed in the related proceedings to more than $3.38 billion.

In a statement signed by its Chairman, Ahmad Sajoh, and Secretary, Danjuma Sada, TSF said the significance of the arbitral award extends beyond the immediate legal dispute.

It said: “For Nigeria’s economy, the decision represents the avoidance of a potentially substantial financial liability, the recovery of legal costs and, potentially, the removal of a long-standing legal obstacle to one of the country’s most ambitious power projects.

“The Mambilla project has for years represented one of Nigeria’s major untapped infrastructure and energy opportunities. Its prolonged legal dispute has constituted an additional obstacle to the development of a project capable of making a substantial contribution to Nigeria’s electricity generation capacity.

“By resolving the arbitration in Nigeria’s favour, the Federal Government has reduced the immediate financial exposure associated with the claims and secured greater certainty around the legal status of the dispute.”

TSF noted that the ruling comes at a critical juncture in the Tinubu administration’s efforts to address long-standing structural and financial challenges in Nigeria’s electricity sector.

“The timing is particularly significant as the Federal Government is implementing a structured plan to settle ₦3.3 trillion in verified legacy obligations in the power sector,” it said.

Highlighting the scale of the claims rejected by the tribunal, the Forum noted that the approximately $3.38 billion in claims addressed in the related proceedings was greater than the reported ₦2.3 trillion legacy power-sector settlement programme.

“Eliminating the potential liability associated with these claims protects public finances from a substantial financial exposure and provides additional fiscal space for the government to address verified legacy obligations and pursue sustainable reforms in the power sector,” it said.

TSF said the successful development of the Mambilla project could have implications beyond increased electricity generation, noting that additional and more reliable power supply could support manufacturing, mining, agriculture, technology and other productive sectors.

It added that improved electricity supply could also contribute to the creation of new businesses, employment opportunities and increased investment across the economy.

According to the Forum, the resolution of the arbitration also demonstrates the importance of established international dispute-resolution mechanisms in resolving complex commercial disputes involving governments and private entities.

TSF urged the Federal Government to build on the outcome of the arbitration by advancing the next phase of the Mambilla project in accordance with applicable legal, regulatory and procurement requirements, while maintaining transparency, commercial discipline and robust contractual safeguards.